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New Metric Suggests Bitcoin (BTC) Price Bottom is Imminent

  • 2 min read
  • Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading below its realized price indicator which is currently at $21,400. A decisive reclaim of this level would be likely to mark the market bottom.

The realized price is an on-chain indicator that measures the price of BTC at the time it last moved instead of the current price. In turn, it devalues lost coins and coins that have not moved in a long period of time.   

Well-known analyst and trader @DylanLeClair_ tweeted a chart of the price and the realized price, showing that the former has fallen below the latter. This means that a considerable amount of buyers are at a loss and is a sign that is associated with bear markets.

Realized price BTC
Source: Twitter

Previous history

The actual BTC price has decreased below the realized price five times since 2011. It did so in Aug. 2011, Jan. 2015, July 2018, March 2020 and July 2022 (black circles). 

These movements have been associated with Bitcoin market bottoms. However, the periods in which this bearish decrease occurred varied. 

  • 2011 – 110 days
  • 2015 – 240 days
  • 2018 – 115 days
  • 2020 – 8 days
  • 2022 – 100 days so far

While there has not been a consensus on the number of days the BTC price stays below its realized price, it seems that once Bitcoin reclaims its realized price, that is a sign that the bottom has been reached.

Additionally, with the exception of 2011, it always took less than 100 days after the first decrease for the bottom to be reached, even if that was not confirmed until BTC reclaimed the realized price.

<img loading="lazy" width="1800" height="1013" src="https://s32659.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-realized-price-usd-7d-moving-average.png" alt="BTC Realized price" class="wp-image-228922" srcset="https://s32659.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-realized-price-usd-7d-moving-average.png 1800w, https://s32659.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-realized-price-usd-7d-moving-average-360×203.png 360w, https://s32659.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-realized-price-usd-7d-moving-average-850×478.png 850w, https://s32659.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-realized-price-usd-7d-moving-average-768×432.png
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